Biomass burning-agriculture coupling in the Orinoco savannas—Particulate matter emission scenarios

The Colombian Orinoco savannas (254 thousand km 2 ), also known as Orinoquia or Llanos, have been steadily transformed into pastures for more than a century, and since the 1990s, commodity crop intensified production. cropland area expanded at 12% yr ?1 during 2007–2018 period (65% larger in 1996–2007). Yet, we estimate that cattle ranching occupied ten times (34%) (3.2%) 2018. rest of Orinoquia, including indigenous reservations protected areas, was semi-natural state, although exposed to seasonal fire. three main crops, oil palm, corn, rice (72% sown 2017), accounted 68% expansion, with permanent crops expanding two faster (18% ) short-cycle crops. An extrapolation trends indicates cultivated will double by 2040 (reaching 20 palm dominant crop. Satellite measurements show 7% burned every year 1997–2016 period, yet large spatial interannual variations (±26%), significant decrease (up ?4% ). Up 40% (BA) variability linked irregular rainfall drought. areas fractional BA were those least cover. A model developed describe this coupling, along other effects, successfully explained most Orinoquia’s ( r = 0.93). fitted each hectare reduced 0.17 ha. This predicts combination expansion independent decline lead fourfold reduction referred 1997. production generated 3 Gg PM10 (particulate matter <10 µm) 2016, mostly from while biomass burning 57 Gg, i.e., 95% combined emissions. These are expected halve 2017–2040 despite an 83% increase emissions, total emissions remain controlled burning. Such pollution burden should tremendous positive impacts on public health Andes.